Insight Beyond the Headlines
Coalition talks stall has moved to the centre of the policy debate. The private sector has emerged as an unexpectedly important actor. Companies with global footprints increasingly find themselves making decisions with g...
Un security council has moved to the centre of the policy debate. Technology is both part of the problem and part of the solution. The same digital tools that enable faster coordination also create new vulnerabilities, f...
Drought pushes food has moved to the centre of the policy debate. Not everyone shares this assessment. Some analysts contend that the risks have been overstated and that markets have already priced in most of the downsid...
Why the arctic has moved to the centre of the policy debate. Looking ahead, three indicators will be worth watching closely: the trajectory of public spending commitments, the cohesion of the regional coalition, and whet...
Assessing the next has moved to the centre of the policy debate. Not everyone shares this assessment. Some analysts contend that the risks have been overstated and that markets have already priced in most of the downside...
Coalition talks stall has moved to the centre of the policy debate. The private sector has emerged as an unexpectedly important actor. Companies with global footprints increasingly find themselves making decisions with g...
Dr. Leila Haddad
3 min
Politics
Politics
Politics
Economy
Live monitoring
Our security desk assesses the risk as CRITICAL for Global — organisations running affected VPN gateways. Officials familiar with the discussions describe a process that has moved faster than many observers expected, driven less by diplomatic bre...
Our security desk assesses the risk as CRITICAL for Bay of Bengal coastal regions. History offers some guidance, though not much comfort. Previous episodes of this kind were resolved only after a combination of sustained ex...
Our security desk assesses the risk as HIGH for North America, Europe. Our analysis of open-source data covering the past eighteen months points to a clear inflection point in the second quarter, when the freque...
Our security desk assesses the risk as HIGH for Western Europe. For policymakers, the challenge is one of sequencing. Measures that make sense in the long run — diversifying supply chains, investing in re...
Winners and losers has moved to the centre of the policy debate. Interviews with security officials suggest a growing recognition that deterrence must be paired with resilience. Hardening critical infrastructure, rehears...
What a global has moved to the centre of the policy debate. Ultimately, the question is not whether the system will be tested again, but how prepared it will be when that happens. On current evidence, the answer is: bett...
The hidden cost has moved to the centre of the policy debate. Looking ahead, three indicators will be worth watching closely: the trajectory of public spending commitments, the cohesion of the regional coalition, and whe...
On the front has moved to the centre of the policy debate. Critics argue that the current approach treats symptoms rather than causes. In interviews with more than two dozen practitioners, a recurring theme emerged: coor...
Research Spotlight
Peer-reviewed working papers, policy briefs and datasets — free to read, cite and download. Browse the library →
Research
September 2026 · DOI
This paper examines critical minerals and strategic autonomy. Drawing on original data and 40 expert interviews, we find that existing policy frameworks underestimate systemic risk and overestimate institutional capacity. Officials familiar with the discussions describe a process that has moved faster than many observers expected, driven less by diplomatic breakthroughs than by mounting domestic pressure in several key capitals. The result is a fragile consensus that could unravel if economic conditions deteriorate further. We conclude with five recommendations for policymakers and outline an agenda for further research.
Research
June 2026 · DOI
This paper examines ransomware economics. Drawing on original data and 28 expert interviews, we find that existing policy frameworks underestimate systemic risk and overestimate institutional capacity. Our analysis of open-source data covering the past eighteen months points to a clear inflection point in the second quarter, when the frequency of reported incidents more than doubled. That trend has since plateaued, but at a level well above the pre-crisis baseline. We conclude with five recommendations for policymakers and outline an agenda for further research.
Research
April 2026 · DOI
This paper examines early warning for urban flooding. Drawing on original data and 29 expert interviews, we find that existing policy frameworks underestimate systemic risk and overestimate institutional capacity. For policymakers, the challenge is one of sequencing. Measures that make sense in the long run — diversifying supply chains, investing in resilience, building institutional capacity — often impose short-term costs that are politically difficult to justify. We conclude with five recommendations for policymakers and outline an agenda for further research.
Research
February 2026 · DOI
This paper examines sanctions evasion networks. Drawing on original data and 52 expert interviews, we find that existing policy frameworks underestimate systemic risk and overestimate institutional capacity. Critics argue that the current approach treats symptoms rather than causes. In interviews with more than two dozen practitioners, a recurring theme emerged: coordination between agencies remains weak, and information is still shared on a case-by-case basis rather than systematically. We conclude with five recommendations for policymakers and outline an agenda for further research.
Editorial
Elena Petrova
Aug 26, 2026
Editorial
James Mwangi
Aug 26, 2026
Guest Opinion
Tomás Alvarez
Aug 25, 2026
Guest Opinion
Tomás Alvarez
Aug 25, 2026
Our editors' pick of essential analysis, new research and security alerts — every weekday morning.
On the front has moved to the centre of the policy debate. Critics argue that the current approach treats symptoms rather than causes. In interviews with more than two dozen practitioners, a recurring theme emerged: coor...
James Mwangi
3 min
The engineers keeping has moved to the centre of the policy debate. The private sector has emerged as an unexpectedly important actor. Companies with global footprints increasingly find themselves making decisions with g...
Marcus Chen
3 min
How sanctions evasion has moved to the centre of the policy debate. Critics argue that the current approach treats symptoms rather than causes. In interviews with more than two dozen practitioners, a recurring theme emer...
Sofia Lindqvist
3 min
What is a has moved to the centre of the policy debate. Ultimately, the question is not whether the system will be tested again, but how prepared it will be when that happens. On current evidence, the answer is: better t...
Marcus Chen
3 min
How central bank has moved to the centre of the policy debate. The economic stakes are considerable. Conservative estimates suggest that disruption on this scale could shave between 0.3 and 0.7 percentage points off regi...
Dr. Leila Haddad
3 min
The international law has moved to the centre of the policy debate. Not everyone shares this assessment. Some analysts contend that the risks have been overstated and that markets have already priced in most of the downs...
Marcus Chen
3 min
Technology Policy Researcher
Priya researches AI governance, semiconductor supply chains and digital-trade regulation. She holds a PhD in public policy.
11 articles
Geopolitics Analyst
Elena analyses great-power competition, Eurasian security and sanctions policy. She previously worked in political risk consulting.
11 articles
Cybersecurity Analyst
Marcus tracks state-sponsored cyber operations, ransomware economies and critical-infrastructure resilience. Former incident responder and CISSP.
10 articles
Economics Editor
James writes about sovereign debt, trade policy and development finance, with a particular focus on African and emerging-market economies.
8 articles
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