Key findings
- Our analysis of open-source data covering the past eighteen months points to a clear inflection point in the second quarter, when the freque...
- For policymakers, the challenge is one of sequencing. Measures that make sense in the long run — diversifying supply chains, investing in re...
- Critics argue that the current approach treats symptoms rather than causes. In interviews with more than two dozen practitioners, a recurrin...
- History offers some guidance, though not much comfort. Previous episodes of this kind were resolved only after a combination of sustained ex...
Summary
The economic stakes are considerable. Conservative estimates suggest that disruption on this scale could shave between 0.3 and 0.7 percentage points off regional growth next year, with the heaviest burden falling on import-dependent economies and low-income households.