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Research Library

Working papers, policy briefs and long-form reports — each with an abstract, full citation, DOI and free PDF download.

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8
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10.5K
Researchers
5
Featured paper

September 2026 · Sofia Lindqvist, Nadia Benali, Mei Lin

Critical Minerals and Strategic Autonomy: Mapping Supply-Chain Vulnerabilities in the Energy Transition

This paper examines critical minerals and strategic autonomy. Drawing on original data and 40 expert interviews, we find that existing policy frameworks underestimate systemic risk and overestimate institutional capacity. Officials familiar with the discussions describe a process that has moved faster than many observers expected, driven less by diplomatic breakthroughs than by mounting domestic pressure in several key capitals. The result is a fragile consensus that could unravel if economic conditions deteriorate further. We conclude with five recommendations for policymakers and outline an agenda for further research.

critical mineralssupply chainsenergy transitionstrategic autonomy

8 publications

Research

September 2026 · DOI

Critical Minerals and Strategic Autonomy: Mapping Supply-Chain Vulnerabilities in the Energy Transition

This paper examines critical minerals and strategic autonomy. Drawing on original data and 40 expert interviews, we find that existing policy frameworks underestimate systemic risk and overestimate institutional capacity. Officials familiar with the discussions describe a process that has moved faster than many observers expected, driven less by diplomatic breakthroughs than by mounting domestic pressure in several key capitals. The result is a fragile consensus that could unravel if economic conditions deteriorate further. We conclude with five recommendations for policymakers and outline an agenda for further research.

Sofia Lindqvist, Nadia Benali et al. PDF
Research

June 2026 · DOI

Ransomware Economics: An Empirical Analysis of Payments, Actors and Policy Responses (2019–2025)

This paper examines ransomware economics. Drawing on original data and 28 expert interviews, we find that existing policy frameworks underestimate systemic risk and overestimate institutional capacity. Our analysis of open-source data covering the past eighteen months points to a clear inflection point in the second quarter, when the frequency of reported incidents more than doubled. That trend has since plateaued, but at a level well above the pre-crisis baseline. We conclude with five recommendations for policymakers and outline an agenda for further research.

Daniel Reyes, Kwame Asante PDF
Research

April 2026 · DOI

Early Warning for Urban Flooding: Evaluating Community-Based Alert Systems in Coastal Cities

This paper examines early warning for urban flooding. Drawing on original data and 29 expert interviews, we find that existing policy frameworks underestimate systemic risk and overestimate institutional capacity. For policymakers, the challenge is one of sequencing. Measures that make sense in the long run — diversifying supply chains, investing in resilience, building institutional capacity — often impose short-term costs that are politically difficult to justify. We conclude with five recommendations for policymakers and outline an agenda for further research.

Priya Raman, Yuki Tanaka et al. PDF
Research

February 2026 · DOI

Sanctions Evasion Networks: Evidence from Maritime Ship-to-Ship Transfers

This paper examines sanctions evasion networks. Drawing on original data and 52 expert interviews, we find that existing policy frameworks underestimate systemic risk and overestimate institutional capacity. Critics argue that the current approach treats symptoms rather than causes. In interviews with more than two dozen practitioners, a recurring theme emerged: coordination between agencies remains weak, and information is still shared on a case-by-case basis rather than systematically. We conclude with five recommendations for policymakers and outline an agenda for further research.

Dr. Leila Haddad, Hannah Weber et al. PDF
Research

December 2025 · DOI

Measuring the Economic Cost of Internet Shutdowns: A Cross-Country Panel Study

This paper examines measuring the economic cost of internet shutdowns. Drawing on original data and 43 expert interviews, we find that existing policy frameworks underestimate systemic risk and overestimate institutional capacity. History offers some guidance, though not much comfort. Previous episodes of this kind were resolved only after a combination of sustained external pressure and a shift in domestic incentives — conditions that do not yet appear to be in place. We conclude with five recommendations for policymakers and outline an agenda for further research.

Sofia Lindqvist, Kwame Asante et al. PDF
Research

October 2025 · DOI

AI Governance Frameworks Compared: Convergence and Divergence Across 40 Jurisdictions

This paper examines ai governance frameworks compared. Drawing on original data and 41 expert interviews, we find that existing policy frameworks underestimate systemic risk and overestimate institutional capacity. The economic stakes are considerable. Conservative estimates suggest that disruption on this scale could shave between 0.3 and 0.7 percentage points off regional growth next year, with the heaviest burden falling on import-dependent economies and low-income households. We conclude with five recommendations for policymakers and outline an agenda for further research.

Sofia Lindqvist, Kwame Asante et al. PDF
Research

August 2025 · DOI

Food Security Shocks and Political Instability: A Sub-National Analysis of the Sahel

This paper examines food security shocks and political instability. Drawing on original data and 60 expert interviews, we find that existing policy frameworks underestimate systemic risk and overestimate institutional capacity. Technology is both part of the problem and part of the solution. The same digital tools that enable faster coordination also create new vulnerabilities, from data leaks to targeted disinformation campaigns that exploit existing social divisions. We conclude with five recommendations for policymakers and outline an agenda for further research.

Elena Petrova, Mei Lin et al. PDF
Research

June 2025 · DOI

Open-Source Satellite Imagery for Conflict Monitoring: A Methodological Guide

This paper examines open-source satellite imagery for conflict monitoring. Drawing on original data and 20 expert interviews, we find that existing policy frameworks underestimate systemic risk and overestimate institutional capacity. Not everyone shares this assessment. Some analysts contend that the risks have been overstated and that markets have already priced in most of the downside. The evidence for this more optimistic view is real, but it rests on assumptions about stability that recent events have repeatedly challenged. We conclude with five recommendations for policymakers and outline an agenda for further research.

Elena Petrova, Rafael Costa PDF