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Working papers, policy briefs and long-form reports — each with an abstract, full citation, DOI and free PDF download.

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2 publications

Research

February 2026 · DOI

Sanctions Evasion Networks: Evidence from Maritime Ship-to-Ship Transfers

This paper examines sanctions evasion networks. Drawing on original data and 52 expert interviews, we find that existing policy frameworks underestimate systemic risk and overestimate institutional capacity. Critics argue that the current approach treats symptoms rather than causes. In interviews with more than two dozen practitioners, a recurring theme emerged: coordination between agencies remains weak, and information is still shared on a case-by-case basis rather than systematically. We conclude with five recommendations for policymakers and outline an agenda for further research.

Dr. Leila Haddad, Hannah Weber et al. PDF
Research

June 2025 · DOI

Open-Source Satellite Imagery for Conflict Monitoring: A Methodological Guide

This paper examines open-source satellite imagery for conflict monitoring. Drawing on original data and 20 expert interviews, we find that existing policy frameworks underestimate systemic risk and overestimate institutional capacity. Not everyone shares this assessment. Some analysts contend that the risks have been overstated and that markets have already priced in most of the downside. The evidence for this more optimistic view is real, but it rests on assumptions about stability that recent events have repeatedly challenged. We conclude with five recommendations for policymakers and outline an agenda for further research.

Elena Petrova, Rafael Costa PDF