Research
June 2025 · DOI
Open-Source Satellite Imagery for Conflict Monitoring: A Methodological Guide
This paper examines open-source satellite imagery for conflict monitoring. Drawing on original data and 20 expert interviews, we find that existing policy frameworks underestimate systemic risk and overestimate institutional capacity. Not everyone shares this assessment. Some analysts contend that the risks have been overstated and that markets have already priced in most of the downside. The evidence for this more optimistic view is real, but it rests on assumptions about stability that recent events have repeatedly challenged. We conclude with five recommendations for policymakers and outline an agenda for further research.
Elena Petrova, Rafael Costa
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