Our analysis of open-source data covering the past eighteen months points to a clear inflection point in the second quarter, when the frequency of reported incidents more than doubled. That trend has since plateaued, but at a level well above the pre-crisis baseline.
History offers some guidance, though not much comfort. Previous episodes of this kind were resolved only after a combination of sustained external pressure and a shift in domestic incentives — conditions that do not yet appear to be in place.
Indicators
- Increased reporting from multiple independent sources over the past 48 hours.
- Official advisories issued by at least one national authority.
- Observed changes in adversary or environmental behaviour consistent with escalation.